Good post, JP
I'm sure you're right about the wickets we'll prepare, and the fitness of the excellent Ryan Harris wil be a major factor. But the aussies attack is still much better than ours - Johnson, evenon soft pitches, is still capable of roughing up top batmen if his radar's working; and there are still Siddle and Lyion to consider.
If the first test was next week, I'd leave Bell out as he seems a mental wreck. I hope he can find some real form in the next few weeks (an encouraging 90 in 20:20 is a start) and he can be in our line up, although it's worth considering dropping him to number 5, where he seems to score a lot more.
I'm more optimistic than you about Ballance. True, he hasn't faced the best attacks, but they're not all complete duffers either, and an average on 50-odd in your first 10 or so tests is impressive. And he has a very good temperament. He just needs a good long innings or 2.
It'll be interesting to se who does well in the current round of country games, particularly Yorks / Middlesex, where there as a slew of players who could figure in this summer's tests - Robson out for 41, Compton in at the moment. But where are Rashid & Plunkett? Or Jordan for Sussex?