Former IPL President rubbishes ECB projections for the Hundred

[dazedpenguin]

This is quite a damning verdict from Lalit Modi, who as a former President of the IPL knows a bit about these things. It doesn't bode well for the ECB sale of the Hundred franchises, reflecting as it probably does the general reaction to the ECB's over optimistic projections. Here's his tweet: https://x.com/LalitKModi/status/1839301450431713497 and I pasted it below for those that don't want to venture into the sewer that X now is:

"The ECB?s #financial projections for The #Hundred, particularly beyond 2026, appear overly #optimistic and disconnected from reality. The #International #TV #rights figures make little sense, given the #global #competition from other #cricket #leagues like the #IPL. It?s #unlikely The Hundred will #attract the necessary international #audience to justify these #inflated #numbers.

Domestically, while an increase in TV rights from ?54 million to ?85 million is plausible, the #optimism around #sponsorship post-2027 is far-fetched. The ECB?s hope for sustained sponsorship growth into 2029-30 seems more like wishful thinking than a realistic forecast.

Even giving them the benefit for 2027-28, there?s no solid basis to expect sustained revenue growth at the scale predicted. The ECB?s optimism pales in comparison to the IPL, where teams are valued at USD 1 billion based on 16 years of performance. By contrast, as per my analysis The Hundred?s #teams are projected to be worth a mere ?5 million to ?25 million in the best-case scenario in my MOST #CONSIDERED #VIEW, with Manchester maxing out at ?8.5 million.

Worse still, The Hundred struggles to match even the #Caribbean Premier League?s profitability, a sobering indication of its financial frailty. The Hundred appears to be on shaky financial ground, with projections that fail to inspire confidence in its long-term viability as these look dangerously overambitious and unsustainable. #ecb #englishcricketboard #thehundreds #@iplt20 #bcci #england #cpl #carribeancricketleague"

[nat]

Let's hope he's correct.

[vim]

At last, someone with some clout in the sport. Exposing the Emperor's New Clothes.

When the Sunday League started to decline in popularity. I read a prediction that it would end up only being watched by a dwindling band of drunken Yobbos and no one else.

No doubt the Hundred will go the same way.

[dazedpenguin]

Cricinfo did an article on his comments: https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/lalit-modi-pours-scorn-on-overambitious-hundred-in-leaked-financial-projections-1452781

It does need to be taken in the context of someone who made an offer to buy the whole thing and was turned down by the ECB, but I'd be surprised if his view of the ECB projections aren't shared by other potential investors. In a subsequent tweet he called it "a big fat Ponzi scheme":

"Want to clarify about my billion dollar offer. It was to buyout the tournament in perpetuity and the idea was to redo it as a T20 tournament. Not another new format the global audience have ZERO idea about. Secondly to unbundle it from the ECB media rights. Thirdly 100 percent ownership. Fourthly distance from the struggling Hundred competition. Which comes with its own baggage.

My concern now is that they are trying to lure current IPL owners into this non starter league and building a hype around it that has no justification or guarantees on numbers. Basically a big fat Ponzi scheme."

But whatever anyone thinks of Lalit Modi, this is going to be difficult for the ECB to shake off. A complete rethink is needed.

[nat]

The ECB are panicking, trying to sell-off The Hundred franchises by persuading the county chairmen that it will generate enough money to help pay off their club debts.

Now that their scheme has been exposed the fear must be that the ECB will have to sweeten the deal by perhaps selling off the exclusive right to UK professional cricket in August, centrally employing UK pro cricketers or other such japes.

[Andy]

A more cynical person than me might suggest that it is good policy to talk down the franchises before moving in and hoovering them up for a bargain price.  Whilst not unhappy to see the 16.5 bite the dust, it could take English cricket with it.

[SirChef26]

A more cynical person than me might suggest that it is good policy to talk down the franchises before moving in and hoovering them up for a bargain price.  Whilst not unhappy to see the 16.5 bite the dust, it could take English cricket with it.

Exactly this. Modi's throwing a tantrum I assume because the ECB have stopped answering his calls to try and buy/run the competition.

It's no coincidence that since the ECB went public regarding selling the teams, most of the IPL franchises have been using relative means of media to pour scorn on it all. They all clearly want in and are trying to get in by paying as little as possible.

It'll be interesting to see if the Delhi Hampshire sale goes through now that the ECB have told Delhi they still have to pay market price for their 100 stake.

[nat]

'...market price'. In other words...an auction.

[Andy]

'...market price'. In other words...an auction.

Yes, in this case a ?Dutch? one.